Popular index ETFs are behaving like tech portfolios due to their high tech ownership rates. Are you holding an undercover tech portfolio?
2023 has seen a rebound in the technology sector's outperformance versus the wider stock market.
Inflation data is showing signs of cooling now, meaning that investors are increasingly focused on rate cuts in the near future which would benefit the technology sector.
While you may be positioning for this, unbeknownst to you, your core ETF holdings may actually be undercover technology portfolios. Popular indices and ETFs like the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ and XQQ ETFs), S&P 500 (VFV, ZSP, SPY ETFs) and asset allocation funds like VEQT have a high degree of technology ownership.
While you may think you are owning diversified products, these ETFs are heavily influenced by their technology exposure and can become a drag on your performance if a Value rotation develops.
Narrowing in on a few ETFs popular amongst Canadian investors, let's explore how they're correlated. Leveraging Investipal's correlation matrix feature in the chart below, XQQ is the iShares Nasdaq-100 ETF which we will use as a Growth/tech proxy to compare against.
As seen below, XQQ is highly correlated with XEQT (iShares Core Equity ETF), ZSP (BMO S&P 500) and even ZCN (BMO TSX Composite). This means any moves within the technology space can end up influencing popular index ETFs you may be holding.
Digging into these indices, it's no surprise why. The S&P 500 is now sitting at 29% technology and XEQT/VEQT are sitting at 20%.
However, by including something like ZEB (BMO Equal Weight Canadian Banks ETF) into your portfolio you drop that correlation significantly.
The easiest way to hedge against a tech dominant portfolio is to change your allocations into areas not heavily influenced by tech. This includes increasing your weight into Canada, cyclical sectors or Value-focused funds and out of funds with a high degree of Tech exposure. Within Investipal, when you research new ETFs, pay attention to the sector allocation of that fund. In the example below, for XCV (iShares Canadian Value ETF), there is no technology ownership while having a high degree of cyclical and financials weighting.
When building your portfolio, you can also leverage our built-in correlation matrix to ensure:
A sustained rotation out of Growth (tech) into Value (cyclicals) is becoming more evident with sustained inflation. As investors make this switch, it's important to consider your sector allocations and exposure to tech. By running highly correlated portfolios you can compound your risk with any market sell-off or rotation.
Check us out if you need assistance building the right ETF portfolio for you. We offer a platform to easily research and construct ETF portfolios for your unique goals and traits.
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